The short version

Per yearLow estimateMidHigh
What the incentive is really worth to claimants$1.8 billion$2.2 billion$2.6 billion
**Paid to R&D advisers****$116 million****$229 million****$393 million**
Kept by the companies doing the R&D$1.7 billion$1.9 billion$2.2 billion
Share paid to advisers6.5%10.6%15.3%

The low estimate takes the cautious option at every step. Everything below explains how we got there.

Step 1: who claims, and how much

The ATO publishes the name and R&D spend of every company that claims the R&D Tax Incentive (ATO transparency reports). We merged the three reports published so far, using the ATO's amended figure wherever one exists.

  • 18,731 different companies claimed at least once.
  • They made 38,318 claims — about 12,773 a year.
  • Together they claimed $44.7 billion of R&D spend.
  • The median claim was $360,024. The average is three times higher, because a small number of very large claims pull it up — which is why we work from each company's actual figures rather than an average.

Step 2: what the incentive is actually worth

This is the step most back-of-envelope estimates get wrong.

A company with turnover under $20 million gets a 43.5% refundable tax offset on its eligible R&D spend. But claiming it means giving up the ordinary 25% tax deduction for that spend. So the real gain is the difference: 18.5% of R&D spend.

That is true whether the company is profitable (it pays less tax) or loss-making (it gets cash back). The form changes; the value does not.

Companies with turnover of $20 million or more get a non-refundable offset: their tax rate plus a premium of 8.5% (for R&D up to 2% of total expenses) or 16.5% (above that). Their real gain is the premium alone.

CompanyHeadline offsetReal gain over the normal deduction
Under $20M turnover43.5% (refundable)**18.5%** of R&D spend
$20M turnover or moreTax rate + 8.5% to 16.5%**8.5% to 16.5%** of R&D spend

Source: Income Tax Assessment Act 1997, s355-100.

Step 3: how advisers are paid

The Government's 2026 review of R&D support, Ambitious Australia, found that 86% of claimants use an external adviser, and that more than 10% of claim value is paid to consultants as success fees (DISR analysis, pp. 58–59).

Success fees are usually a percentage of the benefit. The detail that matters is which number the percentage applies to:

  • For a profitable company, the fee is typically charged on the net benefit — the 18.5%.
  • For a loss-making company, it is often charged on the cash refund — the full 43.5%.

Step 4: the median claim, worked through

Take the median claim of $360,024 for a company under $20 million turnover.

Profitable companyLoss-making company
Real benefit (18.5%)$66,604$66,604
Amount the fee is charged on$66,604$156,610
Fee at 15%$9,991$23,492
**Fee as a share of the real benefit****15%****35.3%**

Same spend, same statutory benefit — but the loss-making company, usually the one with the least cash, pays about 2.35 times as much.

Step 5: adding it up

We applied those rules to every company in the data:

  1. Sort companies by size. The ATO data does not show turnover, so we treated a company as $20M+ if it is a public entity or averages more than $2 million a year of R&D spend. That puts 2,410 companies in the large group — they account for two-thirds of all spend.
  2. Work out each company's real benefit using the rates in Step 2.
  3. Apply a fee. Small companies: 10% to 15%. Large companies, who usually negotiate lower or capped fees: 5% to 8%.
  4. Count only the 86% who use an adviser.

The low estimate assumes every small company is charged on its 18.5% net benefit at 10%. The high estimate assumes every small company is charged on its 43.5% refund at 15%. The truth sits somewhere between, depending on how many claimants are loss-making — a figure the ATO does not publish.

What we left out

  • Adviser fees are tax-deductible, so a company's after-tax cost is lower than the fee itself.
  • Minimum fees and fee caps vary by engagement and are rarely published.
  • Other costs of claiming — staff time, record-keeping, accounting — are not included. This is only what is paid to R&D advisers.

Sources

  • ATO — R&D tax incentive transparency reports, FY2021-22, FY2022-23, FY2023-24
  • Income Tax Assessment Act 1997, s355-100 (offset rates)
  • Ambitious Australia: Strategic Examination of Research and Development (March 2026), DISR analysis pp. 58–59
  • Department of Industry, Science and Resources — R&D Tax Incentive