The short version
| Per year | Low estimate | Mid | High |
|---|---|---|---|
| What the incentive is really worth to claimants | $1.8 billion | $2.2 billion | $2.6 billion |
| **Paid to R&D advisers** | **$116 million** | **$229 million** | **$393 million** |
| Kept by the companies doing the R&D | $1.7 billion | $1.9 billion | $2.2 billion |
| Share paid to advisers | 6.5% | 10.6% | 15.3% |
The low estimate takes the cautious option at every step. Everything below explains how we got there.
Step 1: who claims, and how much
The ATO publishes the name and R&D spend of every company that claims the R&D Tax Incentive (ATO transparency reports). We merged the three reports published so far, using the ATO's amended figure wherever one exists.
- 18,731 different companies claimed at least once.
- They made 38,318 claims — about 12,773 a year.
- Together they claimed $44.7 billion of R&D spend.
- The median claim was $360,024. The average is three times higher, because a small number of very large claims pull it up — which is why we work from each company's actual figures rather than an average.
Step 2: what the incentive is actually worth
This is the step most back-of-envelope estimates get wrong.
A company with turnover under $20 million gets a 43.5% refundable tax offset on its eligible R&D spend. But claiming it means giving up the ordinary 25% tax deduction for that spend. So the real gain is the difference: 18.5% of R&D spend.
That is true whether the company is profitable (it pays less tax) or loss-making (it gets cash back). The form changes; the value does not.
Companies with turnover of $20 million or more get a non-refundable offset: their tax rate plus a premium of 8.5% (for R&D up to 2% of total expenses) or 16.5% (above that). Their real gain is the premium alone.
| Company | Headline offset | Real gain over the normal deduction |
|---|---|---|
| Under $20M turnover | 43.5% (refundable) | **18.5%** of R&D spend |
| $20M turnover or more | Tax rate + 8.5% to 16.5% | **8.5% to 16.5%** of R&D spend |
Source: Income Tax Assessment Act 1997, s355-100.
Step 3: how advisers are paid
The Government's 2026 review of R&D support, Ambitious Australia, found that 86% of claimants use an external adviser, and that more than 10% of claim value is paid to consultants as success fees (DISR analysis, pp. 58–59).
Success fees are usually a percentage of the benefit. The detail that matters is which number the percentage applies to:
- For a profitable company, the fee is typically charged on the net benefit — the 18.5%.
- For a loss-making company, it is often charged on the cash refund — the full 43.5%.
Step 4: the median claim, worked through
Take the median claim of $360,024 for a company under $20 million turnover.
| Profitable company | Loss-making company | |
|---|---|---|
| Real benefit (18.5%) | $66,604 | $66,604 |
| Amount the fee is charged on | $66,604 | $156,610 |
| Fee at 15% | $9,991 | $23,492 |
| **Fee as a share of the real benefit** | **15%** | **35.3%** |
Same spend, same statutory benefit — but the loss-making company, usually the one with the least cash, pays about 2.35 times as much.
Step 5: adding it up
We applied those rules to every company in the data:
- Sort companies by size. The ATO data does not show turnover, so we treated a company as $20M+ if it is a public entity or averages more than $2 million a year of R&D spend. That puts 2,410 companies in the large group — they account for two-thirds of all spend.
- Work out each company's real benefit using the rates in Step 2.
- Apply a fee. Small companies: 10% to 15%. Large companies, who usually negotiate lower or capped fees: 5% to 8%.
- Count only the 86% who use an adviser.
The low estimate assumes every small company is charged on its 18.5% net benefit at 10%. The high estimate assumes every small company is charged on its 43.5% refund at 15%. The truth sits somewhere between, depending on how many claimants are loss-making — a figure the ATO does not publish.
What we left out
- Adviser fees are tax-deductible, so a company's after-tax cost is lower than the fee itself.
- Minimum fees and fee caps vary by engagement and are rarely published.
- Other costs of claiming — staff time, record-keeping, accounting — are not included. This is only what is paid to R&D advisers.
Sources
- ATO — R&D tax incentive transparency reports, FY2021-22, FY2022-23, FY2023-24
- Income Tax Assessment Act 1997, s355-100 (offset rates)
- Ambitious Australia: Strategic Examination of Research and Development (March 2026), DISR analysis pp. 58–59
- Department of Industry, Science and Resources — R&D Tax Incentive